The race for Champions League qualification in the English Premier League will be back in full force this weekend as players return from international duties.
Most of the betting world is focused on March Madness odds, but the ever-changing situation surrounding the top four has been one of the most interesting stories in all of sports. Tottenham Hotspurs, Arsenal Football Club, Manchester United, and West Ham United all have legitimate chances of sneaking into the window, with Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea all but guaranteed the first three spots.
Whichever team does make it into fourth place will gain a significant advantage from future Champions League revenue shares and an extra allure to transfer targets during the summer window.
The Main Candidates
Arsenal is in pole position for the top four, currently holding a three-point lead over fifth-place Spurs and with a game in hand. Their position has been vindicated by a string of recent impressive performances, although it was not always glitz and glamor for the Gunners.
Manager Mikel Arteta was in one of the hottest seats in world football a few games into the 2021-22 Premier League campaign after his side lost to Brentford and Chelsea to begin the season. Arsenal looked lifeless and without direction, which led to claims that the Arteta “project” was nothing but a sham— since then, they have made squad changes, sold captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and found their identity.
The Gunners still lack squad depth and would struggle in multiple competitions next season, should they qualify for the Champions League, but they are the best bet to finish fourth as it stands.
Tottenham is next in the table at fifth; they have claimed 51 points in 29 games, although they too have been improving in the middle and later stages of the season. This can be attributed to the arrival of manager Antonio Conte, a relentless tactician with an unmatched passion for the game, but also a man who does not bite his tongue.
Conte has ruffled feathers during his time in London by praising arch-rivals Chelsea, calling the players in his squad “below the standard,” and seemingly flirting with the idea of leaving the club in the summer. Putting aside the controversy, Conte has improved Spurs’ performances and metrics drastically over the past few months, and as a serial winner, it would not be a shock to see him claw his way into the top four.
The Challengers
Manchester United is sixth in the table, boasting 50 points from 29 matches. They too made a manager change early in the season, but have not seemed to have improved from the move— if anything, they are gaining points, but in rather unconvincing manners.
Man U spends more money on its squad than any other team in England but has not been able to find a consistent winning formula, or even a steady lineup. Cristiano Ronaldo, Paul Pogba, Marcus Rashford, and Jadon Sancho have all been thrown around in the starting attack, and the defense has been nothing short of a mess. It seems a longshot for them to finish in fourth, but they do have the talent to mount a challenge— they are just lacking the consistency.
The final candidate for the top-four is West Ham United, the lowest-profile team of the lot, but one that has consistently exceeded expectations the past two seasons. The Hammers sit seventh with 48 points from 30 games, giving them the worst odds of making it past the cut-off.
West Ham is excellent in transition and has given the top teams plenty of trouble, which is a great sign for the future. They likely need at least one more breakthrough player in their squad to be a serious perennial threat, but they are still one of the best teams in the league and deserve praise for their ascension.
